Why is probability important

One common measure is the probability of developing cancer. According to the Canadian Cancer Society, 40 per cent of Canadian women and 45 per cent of men will have a diagnosis of an incident of cancer during their lifetimes.

These probabilities are based on calculations from cancer statistics across the country. While this broad information can be useful for those who plan, deliver or research health-care services, more detailed information is even more helpful. Researchers can also determine the probability of acquiring specific types of cancers at specific ages. They can also consider individual factors, which are important, too. If you have family members with breast cancer, your risk increases.

If you smoke, your probability of getting lung cancer increases smoking is estimated to account for between 88 and 90 per cent of lung cancer cases. Exploratory data analysis —tools that help us get a first feel for the data by exposing their features using graphs and numbers. To really understand how inference works, though, we first need to talk about probability , because it is the underlying foundation for the methods of statistical inference.

We use an example to try to explain why probability is so essential to inference. First, here is the general idea: As we all know, the way statistics works is that we use a sample to learn about the population from which it was drawn.

Ideally, the sample should be random so that it represents the population well. Recall from Types of Statistical Studies and Producing Data that when we say a random sample represents the population well , we mean that there is no inherent bias in this sampling technique. Unfortunately, when looking at a particular sample which is what happens in practice , we never know how much it differs from the population. This uncertainty is where probability comes into the picture. Her experiences as vice-president of an energy consulting firm have given her the opportunity to explore business writing and HR.

Tucker has a BA and holds Ohio teaching credentials. For a refresher course on basic probability, view the video below:. Related Articles Different Kinds of Probability. How to Calculate Probability With Percentages. Methods Of Probability. How to Calculate Probability. How to Convert a Percent to an Odds Ratio. How to Calculate Average Age. What is the application of probability? What is the concept of probability? Which of the following is the best definition of probability?

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